新论文介绍:A New Scheme for Improving the Seasonal Prediction of Summer Precipitation Anomalies

[发布日期: 2014-12-30 浏览量 1168]

A new scheme is developed to improve the seasonal prediction of summer precipitation in the East Asian and western Pacific region. The scheme is applied to the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) results. The new scheme is designed to consider both model predictions and observed spatial patterns of historical ‘‘analog years.’’ In this paper, the anomaly pattern correlation coefficient (ACC) between the prediction and the observation, as well as the root-meansquare error, is used to measure the prediction skill. For the prediction of summer precipitation in East Asia and the western Pacific (0–40N, 80–130E), the prediction skill for the six model ensemble hindcasts for the years of 1979–2001 was increased to 0.22 by using the new scheme from0.12 for the original scheme. Allmodels were initiated in May and were composed of nine member predictions, and all showed improvement when applying the newscheme.The skill levelsof the predictions for the sixmodels increased from0.08, 0.08, 0.01, 0.14, -0.07, and 0.07 for the original scheme to 0.11, 0.14, 0.10, 0.22, 0.04, and 0.13, respectively, for the new scheme.