新论文介绍:Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future? The AGCM simulation under summer ‘ice-free Arctic’ conditions,

[发布日期: 2014-12-30 浏览量 622]

 Recently, frequent snowstorms have occurred during the winter, causing large economic losses and attracting wide attention. In particular, these snowstorms have raised an important scientific question: under the scenarios of future global warming, will winter precipitation in China increase significantly and produce more snow in the north? Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP 3) models&rsquo; projections under the SRES A1B scenario, we generated a possible future Arctic condition, the summer (September) &lsquo;ice-free Arctic&rsquo; condition, and then used the corresponding monthly sea surface temperature (SST) values and the set of CO2 concentrations to drive an AGCM model to simulate the resulting East Asian climate change.<br /> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The experimental results show that during the boreal winter (DJF), the global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario and produce substantial warming in the Arctic regions and in the high latitudes of Asia and North America. The Siberian High, Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all be weakened. However, due to the increased transport of water vapor to China from the north, the winter precipitation would increase from south to north. In addition, the significant increase in the winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges to occur.